Tournament outlook — FIFA World Cup 2026

# Team Champion% ↕ Runner-up% ↕ Semi% ↕ Top-of-group% ↕ Polymarket Edge ↕
1 Argentina
19.8%
11.8% 48.0% 78.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
2 France
13.9%
9.7% 38.5% 74.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
3 England
11.2%
9.3% 35.9% 66.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
4 Spain
9.6%
9.7% 32.6% 77.0% 0.0% +0.0pp
5 Brazil
9.3%
8.3% 31.4% 68.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
6 Portugal
7.9%
8.1% 28.9% 67.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
7 Netherlands
7.2%
7.4% 25.7% 67.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
8 Belgium
6.2%
6.8% 25.9% 74.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
9 Germany
4.5%
4.9% 19.6% 69.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
10 Croatia
2.5%
4.3% 16.2% 28.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
11 Morocco
1.4%
2.1% 9.7% 25.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
12 Switzerland
1.1%
1.7% 7.5% 28.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
13 Colombia
1.0%
2.4% 8.8% 19.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
14 United States
0.8%
1.8% 8.1% 58.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
15 Japan
0.5%
0.9% 4.8% 20.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
16 South Korea
0.5%
1.3% 5.7% 23.0% 0.0% +0.0pp
17 Mexico
0.4%
1.7% 6.7% 50.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
18 Canada
0.3%
0.2% 2.8% 35.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
19 Australia
0.2%
0.9% 3.9% 24.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
20 Senegal
0.2%
1.2% 5.0% 16.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
21 South Africa
0.1%
0.3% 1.7% 18.0% 0.0% +0.0pp
22 Turkey
0.1%
0.2% 1.9% 11.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
23 Qatar
0.1%
0.3% 1.8% 15.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
24 Ecuador
0.1%
0.4% 1.9% 10.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
25 Austria
0.1%
0.1% 1.2% 6.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
26 Egypt
0.1%
0.7% 2.8% 16.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.1%
0.3% 1.7% 19.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
28 Congo DR
0.1%
0.1% 1.8% 9.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
29 Iraq
0.1%
0.4% 1.7% 6.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
30 Norway
0.1%
0.2% 1.2% 3.3% 0.0% +0.0pp
31 Curaçao
0.1%
0.1% 1.7% 13.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
32 Uruguay
0.1%
0.2% 1.1% 5.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
33 Algeria
0.1%
0.3% 2.0% 11.3% 0.0% +0.0pp
34 Czechia
0.1%
0.1% 1.1% 8.3% 0.0% +0.0pp
35 Tunisia
0.1%
0.1% 0.9% 4.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
36 Haiti
0.1%
0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
37 Iran
0.1%
0.1% 0.9% 6.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
38 Cape Verde Islands
0.1%
0.4% 1.9% 12.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
39 Paraguay
0.0%
0.1% 0.2% 5.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
40 Ghana
0.0%
0.1% 1.1% 3.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
41 New Zealand
0.0%
0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
42 Sweden
0.0%
0.2% 1.3% 6.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
43 Saudi Arabia
0.0%
0.1% 1.0% 4.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
44 Panama
0.0%
0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
45 Ivory Coast
0.0%
0.2% 0.9% 6.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
46 Jordan
0.0%
0.1% 0.4% 3.0% 0.0% +0.0pp
47 Uzbekistan
0.0%
0.1% 0.1% 3.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
48 Scotland
0.0%
0.1% 1.2% 4.3% 0.0% +0.0pp

Sorted by p_champion · click a column header to re-sort