Golden Boot race — FIFA World Cup 2026

# Player Team P(top scorer) Expected goals Polymarket Edge g/90
1 Kylian Mbappe France
17.2%
4.32 — — 0.89
2 Lautaro Martinez Argentina
11.5%
3.83 — — 0.74
3 Harry Kane England
11.3%
3.72 — — 0.81
4 Vinicius Junior Brazil
7.8%
3.24 — — 0.70
5 Romelu Lukaku Belgium
7.2%
3.29 — — 0.72
6 Erling Haaland Norway
5.9%
3.06 — — 1.05
7 Lionel Messi Argentina
5.2%
3.10 — — 0.62
8 Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal
3.9%
2.90 — — 0.65
9 Mohamed Salah Egypt
3.0%
2.67 — — 0.78
10 Lamine Yamal Spain
2.9%
2.64 — — 0.55
11 Niclas Fullkrug Germany
2.8%
2.41 — — 0.58
12 Alvaro Morata Spain
2.5%
2.43 — — 0.52
13 Memphis Depay Netherlands
2.5%
2.40 — — 0.55
14 Rodrygo Brazil
2.1%
2.09 — — 0.45
15 Antoine Griezmann France
1.8%
2.30 — — 0.48
16 Bukayo Saka England
1.4%
2.31 — — 0.50
17 Cody Gakpo Netherlands
1.4%
2.03 — — 0.46
18 Sadio Mane Senegal
1.2%
1.93 — — 0.55
19 Son Heungmin South Korea
1.1%
1.91 — — 0.55
20 Andrej Kramaric Croatia
0.9%
1.84 — — 0.45
21 Jamal Musiala Germany
0.9%
1.82 — — 0.42
22 Bruno Fernandes Portugal
0.8%
1.83 — — 0.40
23 Luis Diaz Colombia
0.8%
1.80 — — 0.50
24 Christian Pulisic United States
0.8%
1.76 — — 0.45
25 Raul Jimenez Mexico
0.7%
1.66 — — 0.45
26 Kevin De Bruyne Belgium
0.4%
1.45 — — 0.32
27 Breel Embolo Switzerland
0.4%
1.55 — — 0.42
28 James Rodriguez Colombia
0.4%
1.30 — — 0.35
29 Folarin Balogun United States
0.4%
1.69 — — 0.45
30 Hirving Lozano Mexico
0.3%
1.54 — — 0.40
31 Ismaila Sarr Senegal
0.1%
1.30 — — 0.35
32 Hakim Ziyech Morocco
0.1%
1.16 — — 0.32
33 Achraf Hakimi Morocco
0.1%
0.75 — — 0.20
34 Takefusa Kubo Japan
0.1%
1.06 — — 0.30
35 Granit Xhaka Switzerland
0.0%
0.75 — — 0.20