Golden Boot race — FIFA World Cup 2026

# Player Team P(top scorer) Expected goals Polymarket Edge g/90
1 Kylian Mbappe France
17.5%
4.31 — — 0.89
2 Harry Kane England
12.0%
3.78 — — 0.81
3 Lautaro Martinez Argentina
11.2%
3.75 — — 0.74
4 Romelu Lukaku Belgium
7.6%
3.33 — — 0.72
5 Vinicius Junior Brazil
6.2%
3.15 — — 0.70
6 Erling Haaland Norway
5.3%
3.01 — — 1.05
7 Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal
5.2%
2.92 — — 0.65
8 Lionel Messi Argentina
4.8%
3.10 — — 0.62
9 Mohamed Salah Egypt
4.0%
2.75 — — 0.78
10 Niclas Fullkrug Germany
2.9%
2.52 — — 0.58
11 Lamine Yamal Spain
2.6%
2.50 — — 0.55
12 Alvaro Morata Spain
2.3%
2.36 — — 0.52
13 Memphis Depay Netherlands
2.3%
2.34 — — 0.55
14 Antoine Griezmann France
2.1%
2.26 — — 0.48
15 Bukayo Saka England
1.9%
2.40 — — 0.50
16 Rodrygo Brazil
1.7%
2.10 — — 0.45
17 Cody Gakpo Netherlands
1.2%
1.97 — — 0.46
18 Luis Diaz Colombia
1.1%
1.76 — — 0.50
19 Sadio Mane Senegal
1.1%
1.91 — — 0.55
20 Son Heungmin South Korea
1.0%
1.87 — — 0.55
21 Andrej Kramaric Croatia
0.9%
1.85 — — 0.45
22 Folarin Balogun United States
0.9%
1.72 — — 0.45
23 Christian Pulisic United States
0.6%
1.74 — — 0.45
24 Raul Jimenez Mexico
0.6%
1.72 — — 0.45
25 Bruno Fernandes Portugal
0.5%
1.76 — — 0.40
26 Jamal Musiala Germany
0.5%
1.78 — — 0.42
27 Hirving Lozano Mexico
0.5%
1.49 — — 0.40
28 Kevin De Bruyne Belgium
0.4%
1.43 — — 0.32
29 Breel Embolo Switzerland
0.4%
1.49 — — 0.42
30 Ismaila Sarr Senegal
0.3%
1.25 — — 0.35
31 Hakim Ziyech Morocco
0.2%
1.22 — — 0.32
32 James Rodriguez Colombia
0.1%
1.27 — — 0.35
33 Granit Xhaka Switzerland
0.1%
0.72 — — 0.20
34 Achraf Hakimi Morocco
0.0%
0.76 — — 0.20
35 Takefusa Kubo Japan
0.0%
1.06 — — 0.30