Tournament outlook — FIFA World Cup 2026

# Team Champion% ↕ Runner-up% ↕ Semi% ↕ Top-of-group% ↕ Polymarket Edge ↕
1 Argentina
21.5%
12.6% 49.7% 87.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
2 France
14.8%
11.2% 41.2% 80.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
3 Spain
11.8%
9.9% 37.9% 84.0% 0.0% +0.0pp
4 England
9.8%
8.5% 32.6% 68.0% 0.0% +0.0pp
5 Brazil
9.4%
9.0% 32.9% 71.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
6 Belgium
7.0%
7.3% 28.2% 81.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
7 Netherlands
6.6%
7.0% 25.3% 73.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
8 Portugal
6.0%
6.3% 25.6% 70.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
9 Germany
3.5%
5.4% 20.0% 73.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
10 Croatia
2.6%
4.2% 15.8% 28.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
11 Colombia
1.4%
1.7% 9.2% 17.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
12 Morocco
1.2%
1.8% 8.7% 23.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
13 Switzerland
0.7%
1.5% 7.2% 29.3% 0.0% +0.0pp
14 Mexico
0.5%
1.5% 6.0% 50.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
15 Japan
0.5%
1.3% 5.7% 18.3% 0.0% +0.0pp
16 United States
0.4%
1.6% 6.8% 58.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
17 Senegal
0.4%
1.0% 5.8% 12.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
18 Australia
0.4%
0.8% 3.5% 25.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
19 South Korea
0.2%
1.1% 4.2% 24.3% 0.0% +0.0pp
20 Ecuador
0.2%
0.3% 1.9% 8.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
21 Curaçao
0.1%
0.4% 1.9% 11.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
22 Canada
0.1%
0.6% 3.4% 35.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
23 Ghana
0.1%
0.1% 1.1% 2.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
24 South Africa
0.1%
0.4% 1.6% 17.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
25 Algeria
0.1%
0.3% 1.1% 7.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
26 Czechia
0.1%
0.1% 0.9% 8.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
27 Saudi Arabia
0.1%
0.1% 0.4% 3.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
28 Austria
0.1%
0.1% 1.0% 4.4% 0.0% +0.0pp
29 Egypt
0.1%
0.4% 2.6% 12.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
30 Cape Verde Islands
0.1%
0.6% 2.1% 7.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
31 Qatar
0.1%
0.4% 1.6% 16.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
32 Jordan
0.1%
0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
33 Norway
0.1%
0.1% 1.3% 2.8% 0.0% +0.0pp
34 Scotland
0.1%
0.1% 1.1% 4.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
35 Uruguay
0.0%
0.2% 1.2% 4.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
36 Paraguay
0.0%
0.0% 0.1% 6.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
37 New Zealand
0.0%
0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
38 Sweden
0.0%
0.4% 1.3% 4.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
39 Tunisia
0.0%
0.1% 0.7% 3.6% 0.0% +0.0pp
40 Turkey
0.0%
0.4% 1.3% 10.1% 0.0% +0.0pp
41 Haiti
0.0%
0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% +0.0pp
42 Iran
0.0%
0.2% 0.7% 4.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
43 Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.0%
0.4% 1.5% 18.9% 0.0% +0.0pp
44 Panama
0.0%
0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% +0.0pp
45 Congo DR
0.0%
0.3% 1.3% 8.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
46 Ivory Coast
0.0%
0.1% 1.0% 6.7% 0.0% +0.0pp
47 Iraq
0.0%
0.2% 1.9% 4.0% 0.0% +0.0pp
48 Uzbekistan
0.0%
0.0% 0.1% 2.9% 0.0% +0.0pp

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