Mexico enters this Group A opener with a significant 110-point Elo rating advantage over South Africa, reflecting their status as a traditional CONCACAF power against a side that has struggled to make an impact on the global stage. The model gives El Tri a commanding 57% chance of victory, more than three times South Africa's 17% win probability, suggesting this should be a comfortable start to their 2026 campaign. Bafana Bafana will need to defy their underdog status and punch well above their historical weight to claim points from one of the co-hosts.